This Fall the Tide Is Ready Before the Coho Are

Coho entering Fauntleroy Creek need a tide of at least 11 feet. NOAA's predictions for its Seattle station show at least one high tide that size every day from October 23 through November 30, 2026. For about five weeks, the water will be ready every day. Whether a fall evening at the mouth of the creek, just north of Brace Point where Marine View Drive SW begins, turns out to be something to remember depends on the fish.

The same goes for most of what happens on this stretch of shoreline in October and November. The calendar has two fixed community dates. Everything else gets announced only after someone has seen it.

The 11-foot rule, checked against this year's table

The rule comes from Dennis Hinton, a veteran creek watcher, quoted in Judy Pickens's September 14 report for the West Seattle Blog. "Spawners will need at least 11-foot tides to boost them into the creek," he said. He added that watchers look for fish "circling in the cove in anticipation of coming in, usually between Halloween and Thanksgiving."

Here is how a few dates from NOAA's 2026 predictions compare with that threshold:

These numbers are predictions, not measurements, and NOAA bases them on the information it had when they were requested. Even so, the lowest daily high in the whole window is predicted to clear the threshold. For the stretch from Halloween to Thanksgiving, the tide is not expected to be what holds the coho back.

A path cleared, and a count that swings widely

Volunteers already handled the physical access. In mid-September, 10 of them met at Cove Park with a permit from State Fish and Wildlife. Lead volunteer Mark Sears led the crew in moving drift logs jammed into the sand. According to the report, most of this year's work was clearing a route through invasive beach grass. Bob Maughan, Lilia Matual, Diana Spence, Gerry Coit and Sears appear in Dave Gershgorn's photos working through the thicket.

With the beach cleared and the tides on schedule, the remaining question is how many coho come back, and recent years give very different answers. Watchers documented nine fish and one spawning pair last year, in 2025. The Fauntleroy Watershed Council's 2024 annual report recorded 347 spawners the year before. The same creek, the same cove and roughly the same calendar produced counts in consecutive years that differ by roughly 30 times or more, depending on whether the spawning pair is counted among the nine. A forecast can't settle that kind of range. People find out by standing at the creek.

Why the open-creek weekend has no date yet

The way the watch works follows from that uncertainty. The council will start the 2026 season with its annual drumming to call in spawners on Sunday, October 25, at 4 pm, near SW Director and upper Fauntleroy Way SW. After that, watchers check the lower creek every day after high tide. The public open-creek weekend comes only "if and when they begin to see spawners."

A council post from an earlier season explains how the shifts run. Volunteers cover the five hours after high tide, counting coho, noting spawning behavior and recording sea-run trout. Sears also watched for drift logs that could block fish coming in from the cove. Since a high of 11 feet or more is predicted every day of the window, a watcher could be on duty any day of the week. A good day might not be a weekend.

For anyone within walking distance of the cove, that changes how to plan. The council's open-creek guidance sends visitors to the fish-ladder viewpoint at SW Director and upper Fauntleroy Way SW, on the bluff across from the ferry terminal. If a watcher is working below, visitors can ask to come down for a closer look. That makes the viewpoint useful on ordinary days too, not only during the announced weekend.

The council and the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife both list a few ground rules for creekside visits:

• Children stay with a parent, and dogs stay on leash.
• Approach slowly and stand quietly at the edge of the stream.
• Stay out of the water.
• Leave dead or dying salmon where they are.

Getting to the viewpoint takes a little extra planning this month. West Seattle Blog reported on October 3 that work to prepare SW Wildwood Place for a protected bike lane was continuing and could cause delays. The Seattle Department of Transportation's project page, updated September 21, says the Fauntleroy Way SW and SW Wildwood Pl installations are planned for completion before the end of 2026. It also notes plans to relocate the load zone and the ferry terminal's passenger drop-off.

The other animals that keep no schedule

Whales follow the same rule. Southern Resident orcas in J-Pod made their first seasonal visit to central Puget Sound in September. On September 15, Kersti Muul reported them southbound and approaching West Point, at the northwest edge of Elliott Bay. West Seattle researchers Mark and Maya Sears were with the pod in a small red boat. About an hour later came the update that the whales had turned around before reaching West Seattle. As of early October, the West Seattle Blog's whale coverage had no confirmed fall sighting off the southern shoreline.

The summer showed how close in whales can come. On August 8, a humpback headed north close to shore from Brace Point past Lowman Beach. On August 10, transient orcas were reported heading south past Constellation Park. Neither sighting was announced ahead of time. People who were looking at the water when the animals came by saw them.

Orca Network's Whale Sighting Network helps fill that gap. Its staff and outside experts cross-check community reports, and it links to a public map of shore viewpoints. Anyone on the Marine View Drive bluff who sees a dorsal fin can file a report online. The form asks for the time, location, type of whale, number of animals and their behavior, and photos are optional. A report from the south end can be the first word other watchers get about a pod headed their way.

The two dates that are fixed

Two events this season do have set dates and times, and both are a short trip from Marine View Drive:

1. Fauntleroy Fall Festival, Sunday, October 18, 1 to 4 pm. The festival starts earlier in the afternoon this year. Its main space is at Fauntleroy Church and the YMCA at 9140 California SW, with pumpkin painting, birdhouse building and live music all on one side of the street. The Fauntleroy Children's Center will be open as a quiet space and diaper-changing room. All three levels of the parking lot will be open, but a private event at The Hall at Fauntleroy takes the back lot. Organizers encourage people to walk or take transit.
2. Salmon-watch kickoff drumming, Sunday, October 25, 4 pm, near SW Director and upper Fauntleroy Way SW. NOAA predicts a high tide of about 11.5 feet that day.

The kickoff drumming starts the season. If spawners show up, the council will announce the open-creek weekend, and the fish-ladder viewpoint across from the ferry terminal is where to look for the first coho.

At The City Team, we follow fall on the south shore of West Seattle closely, from the cove at Brace Point to the bluffs along Marine View Drive. If you'd like to talk about what this stretch of shoreline means for your own plans, whenever that time comes, we'd be glad to schedule a consultation.